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Original analysis, derived from public data. India-anchored.

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Container cranes and stacked shipping containers at a port at sunset, with orange sky over the water

Business

China's Record Trade Surplus Rests on the Price of AI Hardware

China's exports jumped 36.3% in September and its surplus is closing on $1 trillion. The engine is AI hardware, and its price effect matters as much as its volume. India sits downstream.

October 14, 2026

A vendor arranges onions, green beans and other vegetables at a market stall in India

Business

El Niño Threatens India's Grocery Bills More Than Its Granaries

A strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through early 2027, and the RBI has already raised rates. India's grain stocks are 2.8 times the norm. The risk is in the vegetable basket, which a rate hike cannot grow.

October 14, 2026

The Mumbai skyline seen across the water from the waterfront, under a partly cloudy sky

Business

IDBI Bank Now Trades 16% Above the Price India Agreed to Sell It For

Fairfax will pay Rs 81 a share for control of IDBI Bank, 6.6% above the government's fair-value benchmark. The stock traded at Rs 93.62 on the day of approval, and the state's remaining 34% is what an open offer may end up pricing.

October 14, 2026

An LNG tanker moored at a gas terminal on a mountainous coastline under a cloudy sky

Business

India's Top LNG Supplier Changed in One Month While Total Supply Fell

Oman is now India's largest LNG supplier, but it got there because American cargoes fell 59 percent in a month, not because India found a new anchor. Total imports fell 14 percent in the same month.

October 14, 2026

A close-up of the reverse of a US one hundred dollar bill, curled at the edge against a dark fabric background

Markets

India's Reserve Peak Was Partly Dollars the RBI Has Promised to Sell Back

India's forex reserves are US$51 billion below their September record. The sharper number is the RBI's forward dollar book, which reached US$200 billion in August, and most of it falls due years from now.

October 13, 2026

Looking up at the stepped facade of an Art Deco office building in Mumbai against a cloudy sky

Business

Why India's Growth Upgrade Arrived With a Rate Hike

The IMF lifted India's growth forecast to 7 percent, the RBI lifted its own to 7.1 percent, and the RBI raised rates in the same week. The demand behind the upgrade is the demand behind the inflation.

October 13, 2026

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