The Signal

Original analysis, derived from public data. India-anchored.

The Latest

A tiled spread of Indian 100-rupee banknotes printed with the Reserve Bank of India name and a portrait of Mahatma Gandhi

Markets

India's Dollar Swap Window Fixed the Hedge at 1.5 Percent While US Yields Kept Climbing

The US 30-year yield has climbed to 5.56 percent since June. The rupee has lost under 1 percent. The RBI's swap fixed the price of the currency hedge, and NRI deposits, not corporate bonds, took most of it.

September 30, 2026

Night traffic of cars, buses, auto rickshaws and motorbikes on a lit highway bridge in an Indian city

Business

India's New Fuel Rules Count One Electric Car as Three and Give Small Cars Nothing

India's CAFE-III rules, notified on 29 September 2026, tighten the fuel target by about 16.7 per cent and drop the small-car concession. The bigger lever is the 3x credit for electric cars.

September 30, 2026

Electricity pylons and power lines silhouetted against a low sun over misty fields in Punjab, India

Business

India Is Spending ₹1.86 Lakh Crore on a Grid That Its Solar Farms Outran

The Cabinet has approved ₹1.86 lakh crore to evacuate up to 135 GW of renewable power. The scheme funds state grids, while the curtailment measured so far sits on the inter-state network.

September 30, 2026

A colonnade of a sandstone government building in New Delhi in blue duotone, with the Indian flag flying above the roofline

Business

India's Deficit Is on Pace After Five Months, but Taxes Are Not Carrying It

The Centre has used 41.9 percent of its full-year deficit in five months, almost exactly what five-twelfths of a year implies. The mix underneath is lopsided: taxes are behind pace and non-tax revenue is far ahead.

September 30, 2026

A tower crane and the sun silhouetted in a hazy duotone sky above an unfinished high-rise building in Faridabad, India

Business

India's Capex Forecast Came True While Private Investment Shrank as a Share of GDP

The RBI's forecast for private capex proved almost exactly right. Private investment still slipped as a share of GDP. The gap sits between financed projects and announced ones.

September 29, 2026

Stacked silver blister packs of tablets and capsules in different colors and shapes, fanned out on a plain background.

Health

India Tells Doctors to Cut NSAID Doses, Not Cut the Combination Pills

CDSCO's new circular tells doctors to prescribe the lowest effective NSAID dose. It never mentions the combination pills that already dominate India's NSAID market.

September 28, 2026

Subscribe to The Weekly Signal

The Weekly Signal is a weekly newsletter that goes deep into the figures behind the news. Every number sourced, every claim verifiable.